Dennis I. Barrett programming • math • data

Taming Black Swans

💡 This is a Data Dispatch post.

Taming Black Swans: Long-tailed distributions in the natural and engineered world

A great talk by Allen Downey (of Probably Overthinking It) from this year’s SciPy conference. Allen discusses the dangers of modelling long-tailed distributions incorrectly (e.g., as lognormal), and shows several real-world examples of such distributions. He also gives some techniques for modelling them better. I’m particularly happy I came across this, as I’ve been working on some forecasting problems involving long-tailed distributions, and his talk gave me some good ideas👌.

If you’ve read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, or are just generally interested in statistical modelling, then you should find this talk of interest 🦢 (sorry no black swan emojis🙃).